South Dakota

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	91.0
Current RPI:	91
Expected SOS:	227
Current SOS:	227
Current Record:	22-8
Expected Record:	22-8
Current Conf Record:	13-4
Expected Conf Record:	13-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	18-2
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	86
Expected OOC SOS:	242

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-8	91.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	A	79-88	W	100%
11-15	TCU (26.0)	B12	A	76-71	L	0%
11-18	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	84-55	W	100%
11-24	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	N	84-71	W	100%
11-25	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	N	62-63	L	0%
11-26	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	N	81-53	W	100%
11-30	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	A	63-82	W	100%
12-2	Duke (7.0)	ACC	A	96-80	L	0%
12-6	Drake (166.0)	MVC	H	93-65	W	100%
12-10	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	75-73	W	100%
12-14	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	A	77-90	W	100%
12-17	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	62-76	W	100%
12-19	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	85-82	L	0%
12-30	Denver (224.0)	Sum	H	82-71	W	100%
1-3	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	H	62-50	W	100%
1-6	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	79-84	L	0%
1-11	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	A	58-68	W	100%
1-17	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	H	82-70	W	100%
1-20	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	A	71-85	W	100%
1-24	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	H	87-68	W	100%
1-27	Denver (224.0)	Sum	A	84-68	L	0%
2-1	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	A	54-80	W	100%
2-3	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	A	72-76	W	100%
2-8	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	H	86-69	W	100%
2-14	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	A	67-85	W	100%
2-17	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	H	79-64	W	100%
2-22	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	A	76-72	L	0%
3-3	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	N	87-73	W	100%
3-5	Denver (224.0)	Sum	N	76-58	W	100%
3-6	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	N	97-87	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
South Dakota	Sum	26.62	26.62	77.46	77.46	14.62	14.62
South Dakota St.	Sum	6.03	6.03	81.48	81.48	3.79	3.79
Denver	Sum	5.95	5.95	48.00	48.00	-0.24	-0.24
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	5.92	5.92	26.92	26.92	-2.73	-2.73
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.37	4.37	40.74	40.74	-0.81	-0.81
Oral Roberts	Sum	4.31	4.31	30.77	30.77	-1.66	-1.66
Western Illinois	Sum	4.29	4.29	36.36	36.36	-1.17	-1.17
Fort Wayne	Sum	4.28	4.28	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
Drake	MVC	1.92	1.92	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.92	1.92	60.00	60.00	0.38	0.38
San Jose St.	MWC	1.78	1.78	10.71	10.71	-1.40	-1.40
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.78	1.78	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.77	1.77	13.79	13.79	-1.28	-1.28
TCU	B12	1.75	1.75	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
UMKC	WAC	1.75	1.75	28.57	28.57	-0.75	-0.75
Southern Miss	CUSA	1.72	1.72	41.38	41.38	-0.30	-0.30
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.72	1.72	20.69	20.69	-1.01	-1.01
Bowling Green	MAC	1.70	1.70	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Duke	ACC	1.67	1.67	78.12	78.12	0.94	0.94
Grambling St.	SWAC	1.67	1.67	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
UCLA	P12	1.67	1.67	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Montana St.	BSky	0.40	0.40	36.67	36.67	-0.11	-0.11
Wyoming	MWC	0.34	0.34	59.38	59.38	0.06	0.06
North Dakota	BSky	0.33	0.33	33.33	33.33	-0.11	-0.11
Missouri St.	MVC	0.31	0.31	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.28	0.28	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.25	0.25	77.42	77.42	0.14	0.14
UC Irvine	BW	0.23	0.23	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.22	0.22	79.41	79.41	0.13	0.13
Kansas St.	B12	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Stanford	P12	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
UNLV	MWC	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Idaho	BSky	0.16	0.16	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
USC Upstate	ASun	0.15	0.15	10.71	10.71	-0.11	-0.11
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Buffalo	MAC	0.14	0.14	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.14	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
IUPUI	Horz	0.12	0.12	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
UTEP	CUSA	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Butler	BE	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.08	-0.08
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02